◈ market integrity · rolling 30-day median · 12 venues
Real vs Reported
Exchange Volume
Every CEX claims big numbers. We score five fingerprints from the actual trade tape — without orderbook context, just the prints — that betray inflated or recycled volume. Rank #1 is the cleanest tape.
Soli's reading
OKX sings clean. Hyperliquid sings off-key. Trust the prints, not the press release.
OKX sings clean. Hyperliquid sings off-key. Trust the prints, not the press release.
Reported · 24h
$679.35B
sum of pair medians across venues
Honest · est.
$494.49B
reported × (1 − wash score)
Aggregate honesty
73%
real ÷ reported, all venues
Pairs · venues
6205 · 12
30d rolling median
Worst venue
Hyperliquid
31/100 · 91% honest
◈ venues · clean → suspicious
#
Venue
Reported 24h
Honest est.
Honesty
Net flow 30d
Score
Verdict
#1
OKX
futures
366 pairs · worst LAB-USDT-SWAP @ 59/100
$432.88B
claimed
$298.75B
estimate
69%
−$956.59B
buy 48%
11
clean
→
#2
Binance Futures
futures
619 pairs · worst BTCUSDT @ 49/100
$41.28B
claimed
$30.95B
estimate
75%
−$17.07B
buy 49%
14
clean
→
#3
Binance
spot
442 pairs · worst CELRUSDT @ 37/100
$5.74B
claimed
$5.07B
estimate
88%
−$4.36B
buy 49%
16
clean
→
#4
Bybit
futures
539 pairs · worst ETHUSDT-31JUL26 @ 50/100
$9.34B
claimed
$6.44B
estimate
69%
−$1.56B
buy 48%
17
clean
→
#5
OKX Spot
spot
580 pairs · worst ORDI-USDC @ 48/100
$1.23B
claimed
$1.14B
estimate
93%
−$1.69B
buy 48%
20
clean
→
#6
Bitunix
futures
601 pairs · worst TAIKOUSDT @ 38/100
$106.92B
claimed
$86.39B
estimate
81%
−$585.86B
buy 49%
20
fishy
→
#7
Bybit Spot
spot
545 pairs · worst VANRYUSDT @ 52/100
$1.57B
claimed
$1.38B
estimate
88%
−$523.8M
buy 49%
22
fishy
→
#8
Coinbase
spot
424 pairs · worst ATOM-USDT @ 74/100
$1.33B
claimed
$1.24B
estimate
94%
−$1.34B
buy 49%
23
fishy
→
#9
Bitget
futures
572 pairs · worst SPELLUSDT @ 48/100
$7.67B
claimed
$6.32B
estimate
82%
−$4.50B
buy 48%
26
fishy
→
#10
Gate Futures
futures
691 pairs · worst IOST_USDT @ 47/100
$6.34B
claimed
$5.87B
estimate
93%
−$47.46B
buy 49%
26
fishy
→
#11
KuCoin
futures
598 pairs · worst COWUSDTM @ 46/100
$60.42B
claimed
$46.68B
estimate
77%
−$183.54B
buy 49%
29
fishy
→
#12
Hyperliquid
futures
228 pairs · worst STG-USDC @ 100/100
$4.64B
claimed
$4.24B
estimate
91%
−$2.12B
buy 49%
31
fishy
→
◈ methodology · five fingerprints from the trade tape
Timing regularity
Real flow arrives in Poisson bursts (high coefficient of variation, >1). Bot grids tick on metronomic intervals — CV drops near 0. We penalise the metronome.
Benford divergence
Genuine prices obey Benford's Law (more 1s than 9s as first digit). Round-number wash patterns flatten the distribution. We compute KL divergence vs Benford on notional > $10.
Self-trade pairing
Wash trading mints buy/sell pairs of identical size within milliseconds. We count pairs with size-fraction tolerance 0.1% inside a 50ms window. Clean tape: <1%. Wash: >25%.
Price impact
Real flow moves price (Kyle's lambda > 0). Wash trades cycle without impact. We compare against a per-base Binance baseline λ and penalise venues whose impact is near zero relative to it.
Size entropy
Organic flow uses many size buckets (Shannon entropy near 1). Wash bots reuse the same notional sizes — entropy collapses. Normalised over log10-bucketed notionals.
Per-pair total = 0.10·timing + 0.20·round + 0.35·pair + 0.15·impact + 0.20·entropy. Per-day score over each 24h tape; the table shows the 30-day median. Median-of-medians at the venue level → robust to one or two outlier pairs.