◈ market integrity · rolling 30-day median · 12 venues
Real vs Reported
Exchange Volume
Every CEX claims big numbers. We score five fingerprints from the actual trade tape — without orderbook context, just the prints — that betray inflated or recycled volume. Rank #1 is the cleanest tape.
Soli's reading
OKX sings clean. Hyperliquid sings off-key. Trust the prints, not the press release.
OKX sings clean. Hyperliquid sings off-key. Trust the prints, not the press release.
Reported · 24h
$912.10B
sum of pair medians across venues
Honest · est.
$641.92B
reported × (1 − wash score)
Aggregate honesty
70%
real ÷ reported, all venues
Pairs · venues
6876 · 12
30d rolling median
Worst venue
Hyperliquid
31/100 · 92% honest
◈ compare two venues head-to-head →
◈ venues · clean → suspicious
#
Venue
Reported 24h
Honest est.
Honesty
Net flow 30d
Score
Verdict
#1
OKX
futures
483 pairs · worst BTC-USD_UM-260626 @ 52/100
$658.35B
claimed
$436.56B
estimate
66%
−$2107.25B
buy 49%
12
clean
→
#2
Binance Futures
futures
701 pairs · worst BTCUSDT @ 48/100
$45.25B
claimed
$33.20B
estimate
73%
−$16.07B
buy 49%
14
clean
→
#3
Binance
spot
456 pairs · worst CELRUSDT @ 34/100
$5.52B
claimed
$4.82B
estimate
87%
−$7.90B
buy 49%
15
clean
→
#4
Bybit
futures
549 pairs · worst AAVEPERP @ 59/100
$3.01B
claimed
$2.23B
estimate
74%
+$142.0M
buy 48%
17
clean
→
#5
OKX Spot
spot
626 pairs · worst VELODROME-USDC @ 66/100
$1.34B
claimed
$1.26B
estimate
93%
−$1.24B
buy 48%
19
clean
→
#6
Bybit Spot
spot
545 pairs · worst SAROSUSDT @ 61/100
$737.2M
claimed
$650.5M
estimate
88%
−$4.7M
buy 48%
23
fishy
→
#7
Bitget
futures
694 pairs · worst SHELLUSDT @ 48/100
$8.37B
claimed
$6.73B
estimate
80%
−$3.46B
buy 49%
23
fishy
→
#8
Coinbase
spot
432 pairs · worst DOT-USDT @ 80/100
$1.33B
claimed
$1.25B
estimate
94%
−$1.26B
buy 49%
24
fishy
→
#9
Bitunix
futures
676 pairs · worst LLYUSDT @ 45/100
$100.33B
claimed
$81.37B
estimate
81%
−$501.33B
buy 50%
26
fishy
→
#10
Gate Futures
futures
809 pairs · worst SONY_USDT @ 58/100
$6.53B
claimed
$6.02B
estimate
92%
−$764.9M
buy 50%
27
fishy
→
#11
KuCoin
futures
675 pairs · worst MUSDTM @ 47/100
$75.84B
claimed
$62.81B
estimate
83%
−$157.45B
buy 50%
28
fishy
→
#12
Hyperliquid
futures
230 pairs · worst STG-USDC @ 100/100
$5.48B
claimed
$5.04B
estimate
92%
−$1.38B
buy 49%
31
fishy
→
◈ methodology · five fingerprints from the trade tape
Timing regularity
Real flow arrives in Poisson bursts (high coefficient of variation, >1). Bot grids tick on metronomic intervals — CV drops near 0. We penalise the metronome.
Benford divergence
Genuine prices obey Benford's Law (more 1s than 9s as first digit). Round-number wash patterns flatten the distribution. We compute KL divergence vs Benford on notional > $10.
Self-trade pairing
Wash trading mints buy/sell pairs of identical size within milliseconds. We count pairs with size-fraction tolerance 0.1% inside a 50ms window. Clean tape: <1%. Wash: >25%.
Price impact
Real flow moves price (Kyle's lambda > 0). Wash trades cycle without impact. We compare against a per-base Binance baseline λ and penalise venues whose impact is near zero relative to it.
Size entropy
Organic flow uses many size buckets (Shannon entropy near 1). Wash bots reuse the same notional sizes — entropy collapses. Normalised over log10-bucketed notionals.
Per-pair total = 0.10·timing + 0.20·round + 0.35·pair + 0.15·impact + 0.20·entropy. Per-day score over each 24h tape; the table shows the 30-day median. Median-of-medians at the venue level → robust to one or two outlier pairs.