🧠 Uncle Sol: Arbitrage Hunter Feb 16 — 9.0% Arb

🎯 Arb Desk Report

February 16, 2026 — The Arb Desk hums like a well-tuned engine: 167 opportunities identified, a chorus of small edges that add up when you’re patient and disciplined. The best spread we can point to in this feed runs roughly around 9% on an edge between Bitget and Bybit, but the real art is in the per-unit profit you can squeeze from the price gaps across venues. In this environment, the market is always right, and the window to act is your friend or your foe depending on liquidity and speed. Remember: don’t chase the thrill, chase the edge. Today’s set is a blend of relatively small notional spreads across multiple exchanges, a reminder that resilience and method beat bravado.

🏆 Top 5 Arbitrage Opportunities

• Asset: EDEN — Spread: 8.96%
• Buy on Bitget at 0.035110, Sell on Bybit at 0.036090
• Available volume: not disclosed in the feed
• Window duration: short-lived; execution depends on liquidity at press time
• Risk factors: modest price gaps but liquidity at both ends should be confirmed; cross-exchange withdrawal/redeposit times can bite
• Take: Executable in principle, but confirm order book depth and slippage before sending a market-like sweep

• Asset: TAO — Spread: 8.65%
• Buy on Bitget at 200.220000, Sell on Gate Futures at 208.800000
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: typically minutes in fast-moving futures
• Risk factors: perpetual-style futures can carry funding rate risk; ensure proper contract specification
• Take: High edge, but verify contract months and liquidity to avoid basis surprises

• Asset: INIT — Spread: 8.55%
• Buy on Bitunix at 0.109460, Sell on Bybit at 0.112016
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: short; needs rapid pairing
• Risk factors: cross-exchange collateral implications; watch for asset-claim timing
• Take: Plausible with quick routing and robust price feeds

• Asset: MOVE — Spread: 7.84%
• Buy on Bybit Spot at 0.027224, Sell on OKX Spot at 0.027890
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: limited by liquidity pockets
• Risk factors: spot markets can dry up; intraday volatility can eat edge
• Take: Favorable if you can thread the liquidity needle, otherwise be cautious

• Asset: INIT — Spread: 7.64%
• Buy on Bitget at 0.084935, Sell on Bybit at 0.086950
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: variable; typically minutes in a crowded feed
• Risk factors: same-day liquidity checks; price impact on exit
• Take: Executable with fast routing and good book depth

• Asset: INIT — Spread: 7.54%
• Buy on Bitget at 0.123400, Sell on Bybit at 0.127490
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: short
• Risk factors: execution risk on multiple venues; withdraw/transfer timing
• Take: Solid edge if liquidity supports a clean fill

• Asset: TNSR — Spread: 6.95%
• Buy on Bitunix at 0.052548, Sell on Gate Futures at 0.056200
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: brief
• Risk factors: futures liquidity skew; ensure funding and contract month alignment
• Take: Worth a quick look with precise routing

• Asset: FHE — Spread: 6.31%
• Buy on Bybit at 0.048880, Sell on Bitunix at 0.050425
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: short
• Risk factors: cross-exchange liquidity and withdrawal timing
• Take: Clean edge if you can lock both legs with minimal slippage

• Asset: INIT — Spread: 6.21% (Hyperliquid)
• Buy on Hyperliquid at 0.117030, Sell on Gate Futures at 0.120200
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: brief; watch for rapid reversal
• Risk factors: Hyperliquid liquidity and routing; ensure we’re not chasing a fade
• Take: Edge exists; execute with a fast, low-friction route

• Asset: SIREN — Spread: 6.21%
• Buy on Bybit at 0.206510, Sell on Bitunix at 0.212982
• Available volume: not disclosed
• Window duration: limited
• Risk factors: cross-venue settlement timing; check withdrawal and transfer queues
• Take: Executable if liquidity allows clean fills

Note: Total pump/dump/pressure metrics show 0.0M in the current feed. That isn’t unusual in a fast-arbitrage snapshot; it simply means the crowd hasn’t flooded these particular legs with large notional bets yet. The real map is in the order books, and the edges lie where depth is deep and latency is shallow.

📊 Exchange Spread Patterns

Patterns emerge when you scan pairs: OKX and Bitget showed consistent cross-leg opportunities on several names, but not every pair behaves the same every moment. Bybit vs Bitget stabilizes a few assets, with Hyperliquid occasionally presenting a clean delta against Gate Futures. In this set, exchanges with more granular liquidity layers (Bitunix, Hyperliquid, Gate Futures) tend to provide reliable edges when paired against more mainstream venues like Bybit or OKX. The trick isn’t chasing a single silver bullet; it’s curating a map of liquidity pockets and timing accordingly.

⚡ Speed vs Size Analysis

The arithmetic of arbitrage is a dance between speed and size: tiny spreads demand lightning-fast routing and tight slippage control, while larger spreads require enough notional to make the edge worth chasing given fees and withdrawal friction. The old saying holds here: patience pays, but you must still move with precision. If you can secure a chain of fast, low-variance fills, you can scale a little edge into meaningful profit. If the window looks crowded or the liquidity shallow, reduce size to protect against slippage and partial fills.

💰 Profit Calculations

• Gross spread (per unit, using per-asset price difference):
• EDEN: 0.036090 - 0.035110 = 0.000980
• TAO: 208.800000 - 200.220000 = 8.580000
• INIT (Bitunix): 0.112016 - 0.109460 = 0.002556
• MOVE: 0.027890 - 0.027224 = 0.000666
• INIT (Bitget/@0.084935): 0.086950 - 0.084935 = 0.002015
• INIT (Bitget/@0.123400): 0.127490 - 0.123400 = 0.004090
• TNSR: 0.056200 - 0.052548 = 0.003652
• FHE: 0.050425 - 0.048880 = 0.001545
• INIT (Hyperliquid): 0.120200 - 0.117030 = 0.003170
• SIREN: 0.212982 - 0.206510 = 0.006472

• Net profit after assumed fees (0.1% per side, i.e., 0.2% total on notional; withdrawal fees not included here due to varying schedules; assume they’re negligible for per-unit math and slice):
• EDEN: 0.000980 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.000978
• TAO: 8.580000 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 8.563
• INIT (Bitunix): 0.002556 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.002551
• MOVE: 0.000666 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.000664
• INIT (Bitget @0.084935): 0.002015 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.002011
• INIT (Bitget @0.123400): 0.004090 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.004082
• TNSR: 0.003652 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.003646
• FHE: 0.001545 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.001541
• INIT (Hyperliquid): 0.003170 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.003164
• SIREN: 0.006472 × (1 - 0.002) ≈ 0.006458

• Takeaways on profitability: even in per-unit terms, the edges look enticing on paper, but the real question is volume. If you can accumulate hundreds of thousands of notional across these legs with clean, low-slippage fills, the numbers move meaningfully. The minimum spread worth chasing depends on your chosen notional, but with a 0.2% round-trip fee assumption, anything under 0.3–0.4% gross per unit becomes marginal after fees and withdrawal frictions begin to bite.

• Practical framing: treat these as edge per unit and layer liquidity with smart routing, not blindly sweep. Your position-sizing should be proportional to the depth you see in each venue and your capacity to manage cross-exchange settlement times.

⚠️ Risk Alerts

• Withdrawal delays: cross-exchange withdrawals can be slow; ensure you’re not locked into a window while funds are queued in transit.
• Low liquidity: some of these edges rely on thin books; you may suffer slippage or partial fills.
• Exchange issues: always be mindful of maintenance windows, API outages, or unexpected halts; keep contingency routes.
• Basis and funding risk (for futures): especially on Gate Futures and other derivatives venues; verify contract months and funding rates so you don’t misread the edge.

🔮 Tomorrow's Setup

Sign Off

As an elder in the trenches, I’ll repeat a timeless reminder: this is a game of patience, discipline, and precise routing. The market is always right, and the edge belongs to those who respect liquidity, speed, and risk. This is your ARBITRAGE HUNTER briefing for February 16, 2026. Stay cool, measure twice, cut once, and let the numbers do the talking.