📊 Boring Boris: Arbitrage Hunter Feb 12 — 23.2% Arb

🎯 Arb Desk Report

🏆 Top 5 Arbitrage Opportunities

Note: exact prices and spreads come from the provided data. Available volume is not specified in this dataset, so consider these as indicative opportunities pending live depth checks and fee schedules. Assess executability with caution; many entries look favorable on paper but can evaporate in seconds.

• Asset/spread: 23.21% spread (buy Hyperliquid at $0.895460, sell Bybit at $0.915500)
• Buy exchange: Hyperliquid at $0.895460
• Sell exchange: Bybit at $0.915500
• Available volume: not specified
• Window: not specified
• Risk factors: potential liquidity constraints on Hyperliquid and Bybit, withdrawal delays, transfer times between chains
• Executable? Not guaranteed. Without live depth and known liquidity, treat as provisional. If depth supports full size at those prices, the gross spread is compelling, but slippage risk is real.

• Asset/spread: 21.19% spread (buy OKX Spot at $1.015476, sell Coinbase at $1.055000)
• Buy exchange: OKX Spot at $1.015476
• Sell exchange: Coinbase at $1.055000
• Available volume: not specified
• Window: not specified
• Risk factors: cross-exchange transfer latency, fund whitelisting, withdrawal restrictions between OKX and Coinbase
• Executable? Potentially, but verify withdrawal speeds and funding options. The margin looks sizable, but operational risk is non-negligible.

• Asset/spread: 16.59% spread (buy Bitunix at $0.046360, sell Bybit at $0.054040)
• Buy exchange: Bitunix at $0.046360
• Sell exchange: Bybit at $0.054040
• Available volume: not specified
• Window: not specified
• Risk factors: liquidity on Bitunix, potential anchor liquidation on Bybit, price slippage in the Bitunix order book
• Executable? If Bitunix depth supports the order size, yes; otherwise, risk grows with size.

• Asset/spread: 15.79% spread (buy Bitunix at $0.046050, sell Bybit at $0.053320)
• Buy exchange: Bitunix at $0.046050
• Sell exchange: Bybit at $0.053320
• Available volume: not specified
• Window: not specified
• Risk factors: same as above; check concrete depth and latency
• Executable? Possible for small sizes; confirm liquidity.

• Asset/spread: 15.70% spread (buy Gate Futures at $0.178300, sell Bybit at $0.194014)
• Buy exchange: Gate Futures at $0.178300
• Sell exchange: Bybit at $0.194014
• Available volume: not specified
• Window: not specified
• Risk factors: futures funding and maintenance margin, cross-margin interplay, withdrawal delay
• Executable? If Gate Futures depth can absorb the size and settlement timing aligns, yes; otherwise, keep to tiny tickets.

📊 Exchange Spread Patterns

• FLOW pairs (Bitunix ↔ Bybit) dominate with several similar mid-teens spreads (15–16%). This suggests Bitunix is frequently cheap relative to Bybit on those instrument footprints.
• OKX Spot ↔ Coinbase presents a robust 21.19% split, a clear ceiling scenario but hinges on cross-exchange transfer cadence and KYC/withdrawal policies.
• Hyperliquid ↔ Bybit (BERA 23.21%) shows high nominal arbitrage but requires strong liquidity on Hyperliquid to avoid immediate slippage.
• VTHO plays show a repeatable pattern: Coinbase buy at $0.000729 vs Bybit Spot sell at $0.000835, offering about 14.53% spread; liquidity in tiny-nominal assets can be elusive, so watch for micro-lot sizes and withdrawal friction.

Overall, the clearest recurring thread is cross-exchange, cross-venue spreads between Bitunix, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, and Gate. But high spreads are only as good as you can reliably execute into and out of, quickly and with controllable slippage.

⚡ Speed vs Size Analysis

• Small, fast fills: The high-potential spreads (20%+ in some BERA setups) tempt quick hits, but depth on the cheap side often dries up fast. Slippage becomes the real killer when chasing large sizes in thin books. Position sizing should follow the rule: never risk more than 2% of the portfolio per single arbitrage leg, and prefer “maker” style entries where possible to reduce taker fees and slippage risk.
• Large, slower trades: The mid-teens spreads (around 15%) can be attractive if you can lock in liquidity, especially for stable pairs and reputable venues. Yet you must account for withdrawal delays and transfer times between the venues, which can erase a meaningful portion of your spread before you complete the cycle.
• Fees and slippage: Without confirmed fee schedules, a conservative assumption is essential. If total round-trip fees approach or exceed half the nominal spread, the trade becomes marginal at best. Always model a per-trade fee of at least 0.1% on each leg as a baseline, plus any withdrawal or network fees, and adjust your target size accordingly.

Recommendation: stick to the low- to mid-teens spreads for small, highly liquid assets with fast settlement, and limit exposure to a maximum of 2% per arbitrage thesis. If depth is uncertain, trim the size further and schedule entries for when depth is verified in real-time.

💰 Profit Calculations

• Gross spread: Use the percentage as a per-unit multiplier. For a 16% spread, a 1 unit move would yield 0.16 units of price difference. If your asset price is $0.05, that equates to $0.008 per unit before fees.
• Minus trading fees (both sides): If you assume 0.10% on each leg (a conservative baseline), total fees would be 0.20% per round trip.
• Minus withdrawal fees: Include any network fees and exchange withdrawal costs. For micro-nominal assets, withdrawal costs can exceed tiny profits; include these in the model.
• Net profit: Gross spread minus total fees and any withdrawal costs. Minimum viable spread is such that net profit per unit remains positive after fees.

Minimum spread worth chasing: practically, anything below roughly 0.5–1% may be swallowed by fees and slippage unless you can transact at a scale where fees per unit drop (i.e., optimized liquidity routing and more favorable maker rebates). For the current list, many opportunities exceed 2–3 times that threshold in headline spread, but real-net profit requires reliable depth and minimal withdrawal friction.

Example (illustrative only, per-unit basis with assumed 0.1% round-trip fees and negligible withdrawal on a tiny test size):

• SPREAD 16% on a unit priced at $0.05:
• Gross profit: 0.08 USD per unit (0.16 × 0.05)
• Fees: 0.0002 USD (0.20% of 0.05)
• Net: ~0.0798 USD per unit
• If you trade 1,000 units, net ~$79.80. If withdrawal costs $1 or more, this drops quickly.

Important: Without live volume and exact fee schedules, these numbers are illustrative. Confirm per-exchange maker/taker fees, withdrawal fees, and minimum liquidity before sizing.

⚠️ Risk Alerts

• Withdrawal delays: transfers between exchanges can lag, eating into the arbitrage window and sometimes locking profits entirely.
• Liquidity warning: many entries lack explicit available volume. If you try to scale, you may face sudden price moves and slippage.
• Exchange issues: API downtime, maintenance windows, or liquidity shocks can render a trade unexecutable or partially filled.
• Cross-exchange friction: KYC checks, withdrawal whitelisting, and tiered limits can throttle your ability to capture the spread quickly.
• Slippage risk: even small market pressure can turn a promising 15–23% spread into a marginal trade if depth is thin.

Risk mantra: risk management first. Use stop-loss-style discipline for each leg, assume worst-case fee and withdrawal scenarios, and never chase an edge when depth is uncertain.

🔮 Tomorrow's Setup

• Watch FLOW and VTHO pairs with Bybit and Coinbase for potential reappearances, especially if liquidity pools react to overnight funding changes.
• Monitor OKX Spot ↔ Coinbase spreads around US market open and close windows; liquidity tends to spike in those ranges.
• Keep an eye on Hyperliquid ↔ Bybit spreads during periods of low volatility when liquidity is more forgiving; the high nominal spread on BERA is alluring but fragile.

Best times to watch: during cross-border session overlaps and exchange maintenance windows that often trigger temporary dislocations. Use pre-open liquidity checks and real-time depth confirmation before placing any size.

Sign Off

Risk management first, always. If you’re chasing these, do it with precise limits, tiny sizes, and care for the trade-off between speed and depth. Have you considered the downside? Never more than 2% of capital per leg, and always have a hard stop. Arbitrage can be glamorous in theory, but in practice it's a test of discipline, not bravado.